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Global Economic Outlook 2025: Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Return to the Macro Equation

Global Economic Outlook 2025: Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Return to the Macro Equation

Global Economic Outlook 2025: Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Return to the Macro Equation

Written by Shan Saeed, IQI Chief Economist

Markets are volatile, and investors are puzzled. The magnitude of recent market reactions has not been seen in a generation.

While public markets face sharp selloffs, private investors are often more insulated from Wall Street’s turmoil.

This divergence is more relevant than ever. The Nasdaq recently endured its worst day since 2022, with over $1 trillion in market value wiped out in just six hours.

“The market is going through a period of transition,” President Trump acknowledged—a diplomatic way of warning that public investors should brace for continued turbulence.

Hard Economic Truths Can emerge Quickly

  • U.S. stocks rose 14% from their April lows as signs emerged that trade tensions with China may ease.
  • Supply chains cannot be rewired quickly without significant disruption.
  • Stay optimistic on developed market (DM) stocks, but expect near-term volatility.
  • The underlying U.S. economy and corporate earnings remain solid, bolstered by transformative forces such as AI.
  • Favor short- and medium-term fixed income maturities in the U.S. market.

THE AI MARKET IS HEATING UP

AI Innovation Race: Top 5 Countries with the Most AI Patents

China leads the global AI race with an astonishing 300,510 patents, accounting for over 50% of all AI-related intellectual property.

The country is investing heavily in deep learning, natural language processing (NLP), and computer vision—cementing its leadership in AI-powered industries.

The United States follows with 67,773 patents, maintaining its edge in AI research and foundational technologies with strong commercial applications.

Japan ranks third, focusing on robotics, smart cities, healthcare, and autonomous systems with 26,429 patents.

India is rapidly emerging as a key player, with 25,991 patents driven by initiatives like the National AI Mission and significant progress in AI applications across agriculture, healthcare, fintech, and language tech.

South Korea rounds out the top five with 23,666 patents, pushing advancements in consumer electronics, smart factories, and 5G.

The global AI race is reshaping the future of technology.
Which country will lead the charge
over the next decade?

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