Newsletter

Written by Hamid R. Azarmi, Head of Business DevelopmentAs 2025 nears its end, three forces converge: slowing global growth, rising political uncertainty, and AI’s accelerating influence. Navigating this space demands both conviction and flexibility. Growth Deceleration The UN’s mid-2025 outlook projects global GDP growth of 2.4 % in 2025, down from 2.9 % in 2024. Notably, U.S. growth is forecast at 1.6 %, China’s at 4.6 %, and India remains a bright spot at around 6.3 %. Politics Amplifies Risk With key elections upcoming in the U.S., EU, and India, markets are bracing for policy surprises. Capital is shifting toward defensive assets as fiscal space narrows. AI: Engine, but also Concentration Risk AI continues to dominate returns: in 2025, much of the S&P 500’s gain is attributed to AI-linked firms. Global investment in AI infrastructure is rising sharply. While exact figures vary, Big Tech AI capital spending is now measured in hundreds of billions annually, and investors are increasingly cautious about overvaluation. Regulation Becomes a Frontier New laws such as California’s SB 53 and the EU’s AI Act mandate risk management, transparency, and accountability for deployed systems. Firms must now treat compliance as a core strategic constraint. What 2026 May Hold Fiscal and monetary policy cues will be decisive International alignment (or fragmentation) on AI regulation Early signals from election outcomes In this volatile mix, success hinges on adaptability. Diversify across sectors, track regulatory developments, and prepare for markets shaped as much by law and politics as by earnings. Sources: United Nations DESA, Washington Post, European Commission, California Legislative Information. Discover more insights here!Download

Written by Shan Saeed, IQI Chief Economist The world economy stands at a macroeconomic crossroads—a juncture where fragility and instability remain embedded in the global financial tapestry. The parallels with the 1970s stagflationary decade are striking. Then, as now, the interplay of energy shocks, monetary missteps, and fiscal profligacy created a volatile economic milieu that tested even the most seasoned policymakers. Today, we confront a similar mosaic of monetary dissonance and market ructions unseen in a generation. The monetary-policy innuendos across advanced economies are surfacing with unmistakable clarity: central banks, having over-stimulated liquidity post-pandemic, now risk steering their economies toward sub-par growth trajectories and structurally higher inflation over the next two to three years. Financial repression is quietly becoming the lexicon of the decade. Both equity and fixed-income markets are bracing for seismic adjustments as the specter of a sovereign-debt recalibration looms large. Global debt ratios are hovering near vertiginous levels, while commodity prices—especially in energy and metals—continue their upward ascent, signaling that inflationary undertones remain far from transitory. If one were to meticulously regurgitate the 1970s playbook, the analogies are unmistakable: a world grappling with geopolitical realignments, tariff volatility, and policy contradictions, leaving investors increasingly discombobulated and convoluted in judgment. Key Strategic Questions for Global Investors 1. What will be the epitaph of this economic cycle—renewal or reckoning? 2. How will central banks orchestrate the next phase of inflation management? 3. Why are institutional investors hoarding liquidity, preferring cash as a defensive moat?4. Why has Dubai real estate emerged as a proxy global currency—a tangible hedge against fiat fragility?5. How high could precious metals soar in the next 24 months as monetary credibility erodes?6. Why are central banks aggressively accumulating gold at a record pace?7. Which technology giants will sustain valuation leadership in U.S. equity markets?8. How will China leverage its dominance in rare earths and AI technology to shape the next phase of global economic leadership? Dollar Index Outlook 2025: History Repeats — 1976–1981 Redux As my colleague Otavia Tavi aptly notes, conventional wisdom portrays a rising U.S. dollar as a flight to safety—a liquidity reflex in times of stress. While partially true, history suggests a deeper structural correlation: the dollar’s long-term cycles mirror the relative performance of U.S. assets versus the rest of the world. When the dollar appreciates, U.S. assets dominate global capital flows; when it depreciates, emerging markets ascend. Yet the current macro configuration challenges the orthodoxy. Persistent twin deficits, combined with asset overvaluation and fiscal laxity, render a sustained strong dollar macroeconomically untenable.  In essence, the U.S. cannot rectify chronic imbalances through a perpetually appreciating currency—quite the opposite. A weaker dollar increasingly appears to be the implicit, perhaps inevitable, policy choice to restore external balance and avert systemic dislocation.  Viewed through that lens, a dollar retracement could well become the catalyst for a structural reconfiguration of global capital flows, as financial gravity gradually tilts from the West toward the Rest. Discover more insights here!Download

Written by Yousaf Iqbal, Head of IQI CanadaCanada  Canada’s Housing Market in September 2025: Signs of Stability Amid Affordability Pressures In September 2025, Canada’s housing market showed signs of cautious stabilization. National average home prices edged up slightly by 0.2% to C$674,000, though they remained 1.8% lower than the previous year. Sales rose 3.1% month-over-month, buoyed by interest rate cuts and an increase in listings. Yet, affordability continues to be a challenge, with mortgage costs still 35% higher than in 2019. On the rental side, prices declined for the third consecutive month, thanks to an uptick in housing completions, offering modest relief to tenants. While the market is showing early signs of recovery, it remains sensitive to affordability constraints. At the city level, Toronto (GTA) saw a 2.3% rise in home sales and a 9.4% increase in listings in August 2025, expanding supply and making the market more competitive. Prices, however, fell by 5.2% to an average of $1.02 million, as affordability pressures persisted. In Greater Vancouver, September sales were up 1.2% year-on-year, but the sales-to-active listings ratio of 11.3% signalled mild downward price pressure. Meanwhile, Quebec stood out with a 12% year-on-year surge in transactions—the strongest September since 2020—driven by an 18% rise in listings and stable inventory. Prices climbed across all property types, underscoring strong seller conditions in the province. Source by FSMI Discover more country insights here!Download

Written by Dustin Trung Nyugen, Head of IQI VietnamHousing Prices Surge Amid Cost Pressures and Supply Bottlenecks; Government Eyes Reform Vietnam’s housing market continues to grapple with relentless price increases, fueled by rising land costs, material expenses, and extended approval timelines. Industry experts cite high development costs and premium segment focus as key contributors, with some projects taking up to a decade to secure full licensing—driving prices even higher. Developers’ pursuit of large profits further inflates prices, pushing affordability further out of reach for average citizens. In response, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has called for tighter regulation to curb speculation, enhance market transparency, and accelerate the development of affordable housing. Vietnam aims to complete over 100,000 social housing units by the end of 2025. Key initiatives include diversifying housing supply, expanding rental and worker housing, and mobilizing all sectors to invest in socially inclusive housing under market-driven frameworks. These reforms are critical to ensuring a more balanced, accessible, and sustainable real estate landscape in the years ahead. Discover more country insights here!Download

Written by Nelson Li, Head of IQI Hong KongHong Kong’s office market recorded positive momentum in August 2025, with net absorption reaching 313,800 sq ft—driven by rising demand from IPO activity and wealth management tenants. Central and Tsim Sha Tsui led the improvement, with vacancy rates tightening to 11.2% and 7.6% respectively. Although overall office vacancies nudged up to 13.5% due to new supply from One Causeway Bay, the rental decline has started to slow. Average monthly office rents fell by just 0.2%—the smallest drop in 2025—with the sharpest decreases in Hong Kong East (-0.6%) and Kowloon East (-0.3%). Central saw only a 0.1% decline. A notable deal included a full-floor acquisition at International Enterprise Centre Phase 1 for HKD 71.8 million. The residential sector saw a slowdown in transactions, with total sales volumes falling 8.2% month-on-month to 5,291 units. The primary market contributed 1,781 units, while the secondary market accounted for 3,510. Mass residential capital values declined by 0.5% in August, reflecting continued volatility. Despite the softening, market activity remains healthy: July mortgage applications rose 4.9% month-on-month, with loan approvals surging 11.2% to HKD 30.6 billion. The Headland Residences Phase 1 saw a 47% absorption rate on launch day, while the luxury market made headlines with the sale of a penthouse at 1 Gough Hill on The Peak for HKD 1.09 billion—setting a new record at HKD 95,014 per sq ft. Discover more country insights here!Download

Written by Manu Bhazin, Country Head of IndiaIndia’s office market is experiencing a structural transformation, powered by the rapid growth of Global Capability Centres (GCCs). No longer just cost-saving back offices, GCCs are evolving into strategic innovation hubs for multinational firms, contributing significantly to leasing activity. In 2024, GCCs leased 28 million sq. ft. of Grade A office space—accounting for over a third of the record 77.2 million sq. ft. leased nationwide, a 15% year-on-year jump. Leading corridors like Bengaluru, Gurugram, and Hyderabad are witnessing sustained occupancy and rising developer confidence, underpinned by India's deep digital talent pool and expanding infrastructure. Projections from ICRA estimate that GCCs will lease an additional 50–55 million sq. ft. of office space by FY2027, capturing nearly 40% of total demand across the top six cities. EY forecasts suggest the number of GCCs will grow from 1,580 in 2023 to around 2,400 by 2030, potentially employing over 4.5 million professionals. Despite rising demand, India maintains one of the world’s most cost-effective prime rental markets, with developers now focused on delivering ESG-aligned, flexible workspaces that meet global standards. With this dual advantage of affordability and capability, India is fast becoming a global headquarters for innovation—not just operations. Discover more country insights here!Download

Written by Emmanuel Andrew Venturina, Head of IQI PhilippinesThe Philippine real estate market remained resilient in Q3 2025, showing signs of sustained demand across both commercial and residential segments despite broader global uncertainties.Metro Manila’s prime office vacancy rate dropped to 8.5% from 9.2% in the previous quarter, while newly launched office space saw a healthy take-up rate of 75%—a reflection of ongoing local and international business expansions. Residential vacancy held at approximately 12%, underpinned by continued demand for condominiums and affordable housing in key growth corridors. Capital values also climbed across the board. Residential properties in Metro Manila appreciated by 6.8% year-on-year, while commercial properties posted gains of 5.4%. This uplift is closely tied to major infrastructure rollouts, including expanded transport networks and ongoing government-led development projects. Together, these fundamentals suggest a market well-positioned for continued momentum heading into 2026, with urban connectivity and housing accessibility acting as key drivers. Discover more country insights here!Download

Written by Junaid Hamid, Head of IQI Karachi PakistanKarachi’s Property Market in October 2025: Infrastructure-led Optimism Gains Ground Karachi’s real estate outlook for October 2025 is anchored by a wave of infrastructure improvements and long-term urban planning. The newly announced Greater Karachi Regional Plan 2047 (GKRP) promises to reshape future development decisions with clearer zoning, housing, transport, and utility strategies. While still in its early stages, the plan offers investors improved predictability—especially in corridors prioritized for infrastructure sequencing. On the ground, the city has launched a targeted road repair program, with District Central seeing active resurfacing. These upgrades, although subtle, improve access and make previously overlooked inner-neighbourhood assets more attractive to renters and buyers alike. Several major flyover projects—most notably at Khalid Bin Waleed Road, Azeem Pura, and Quaidabad—are set to dramatically ease cross-city congestion, shortening travel times and boosting the appeal of adjacent micro-markets. Water reliability is also getting attention, with progress on the Hub Canal and K-IV upgrades expected to ease supply pressures by year-end. Coastal value is getting a lift too, with the launch of Pakistan’s first floating mangrove park in Korangi Creek, enhancing the lifestyle appeal of waterfront areas. For investors, the near-term play lies in execution: well-positioned assets near upgraded roads, flyovers, or utility improvements are likely to see rental and occupancy gains first, followed by pricing uplift once public confidence in delivery grows. Source by Zameen News Discover more country insights here!Download