Global Growth Remains Resilient but Uneven
The global economy entered the second half of 2026 with stronger momentum than many expected. Growth is tracking near 2.8%, ahead of the market consensus of approximately 2.5%, supported by easing tariff pressures, more favourable financial conditions and fiscal support in Germany.
The United States and China remain the main anchors of global activity. The US continues to benefit from tax relief, policy support and resilient corporate investment, while China’s export sector is helping maintain growth near 4.8%.
However, this expansion is increasingly uneven. Capital is concentrating around artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centres, energy security and large-scale platforms. At the same time, softer labour markets and slower output growth are affecting parts of the West.
This divide is creating a more selective global economy, where scale, liquidity and the ability to adapt are becoming more important indicators of resilience.
Geopolitical Risk Reshapes Investment Decisions
Geopolitics remains one of the biggest variables influencing markets. The Iran conflict pushed Brent crude higher during disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz before prices eased towards the mid-US$70s.
The retreat offered some relief, but energy markets remain exposed. The Strait of Hormuz continues to carry a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, making maritime security and regional developments important economic risks.
Central banks are also strengthening their financial buffers. They purchased approximately 860 tonnes of gold in 2025, well above the pre-2022 average of around 470 tonnes. This continued accumulation reflects efforts to diversify reserves and reduce exposure to geopolitical and currency risks.
Outlook
The global economy is likely to remain resilient, but growth will continue to vary across countries and sectors.
Markets with energy security, strong liquidity, fiscal flexibility and institutional capacity should be better positioned to absorb future shocks. Investors are expected to remain focused on quality, scale and long-term resilience rather than broad market momentum.
