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Global economic outlook 2025: Trump, tariffs, and the trade war

Global economic outlook 2025: Trump, tariffs, and the trade war

This article is contributed by Shan Saeed, Chief Economist at Juwai IQIAs we enter 2025, the question looms; What does the future hold for global investors? That’s the big question. A recent analysis by Mike Bell of JP Morgan London paints a clear picture of the global economic outlook. The global economic landscape is marked by significant divergence. While the US demonstrates resilience, Europe faces increasing risks of recession. Central banks are expected to continue cutting rates, and we anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) will implement more rate cuts than currently priced in by the markets between now and the end of 2025. In Europe, the recent PMI business survey data highlights a contraction in activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The service sector is also slowing, heightening concerns about a potential recession. The risk of US tariffs on European exports further exacerbates these concerns. We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement an additional 25 basis point rate cut this year. However, internal debates within the ECB about the neutral rate suggest that rate cuts may proceed more cautiously than markets currently anticipate. The UK economy is also under strain, as business surveys point to a slowdown. The recent budget has influenced the BoE's stance, leading to expectations of more gradual rate cuts. The focus remains on inflation and wage growth, with the potential for deeper cuts if wage growth continues to moderateIn contrast, the US economy remains robust, driven by strong consumer spending and potential policy measures from the Trump administration. While some concerns persist about the labor market, overall growth prospects are positive, with the potential for above-trend growth in the coming year. Credit Fundamentals and Investment StrategiesDespite the risk of a European recession, European banks are likely to remain resilient, supported by strong regulatory capital ratios and healthy profitability. With an average common equity tier 1 ratio of 15.4%, these banks are well-equipped to withstand economic shocks. The regulatory buffer to requirements is substantial, averaging 400 basis points, providing a significant cushion against potential downturnsOur investment strategies prioritize maintaining high credit quality, focusing on single-A-rated names and above. This approach enhances portfolio resilience amidst tight spreads on lower-rated credits. We are also selectively adding duration to our portfolios when market conditions present favorable opportunities, particularly in the US and UK, where rate cuts are less aggressively priced. ConclusionWhile recession risks have increased in Europe, the US outlook remains strong. Our liquidity strategies arewell-positioned to navigate these conditions, focusing on credit quality and active duration management tooptimize returns.GDP Outlook for 2025 Check out newslettere now!

15 January

Navigating success: Malaysia’s key container ports

Navigating success: Malaysia’s key container ports

This article is contributed by Irhamy Ahmad MRICS, Founder & Managing Director of Irhamy Valuers InternationalStrategically located along the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, Malaysia is a prominent maritime nation. Its seaports play a critical role in both regional and global trade, functioning as transshipment hubs for Asia and gateways to the Southeast Asian market. Through its well-connected network of container ports, Malaysia efficiently links domestic industries to international markets.Malaysia’s container trade has grown exponentially over the past two decades. Accounting for over 25% of all containers handled in the region today, the country has witnessed a remarkable 400% increase in container throughput since 2000, when it contributed only 10%. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Malaysia has ranked 5th globally in shipping line connectivity since 2019, ahead of more economically developed nations such as Japan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. It comes as no surprise that Malaysia is home to two of the largest port facilities in the world. Leading the way, Port Klang and the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) handle 64% of the total cargo throughput by Malaysian ports. Both ports consistently rank among the top 20 busiest ports globally. In the 2023 Lloyd’s List of one hundred container ports, Port Klang rose two places to 11th (up from 13th in 2022), while PTP secured 15th position, reinforcing Malaysia’s competitiveness in global tradeThe table below (Figure 1) provides a snapshot of Malaysia’s key container ports, detailing their operational capacities and highlighting their unique attributes. Each port contributes to the country’s maritime infrastructure, supporting both international and regional tradeWhile Port Klang and PTP dominate Malaysia’s port landscape, regional container ports also play an essential role in fostering balanced trade development. Penang Port, strategically positioned in northern Peninsular Malaysia, serves as a critical hub for industries in the region. Kuantan Port facilitates trade along the east coast, providing access to the South China Sea and broader international markets. Similarly, East Malaysian ports such as Kuching, Bintulu, and Sapangar Bay are pivotal in linking Sarawak and Sabah's resource-rich economies to global trade networks. Each of these ports is tailored to its region's unique needs, ensuring seamless goods movement throughout Malaysia and beyond. The nation’s strategic location and advanced port infrastructure have been instrumental in attracting global shipping lines, spurring economic growth, and enabling efficient trade flows. To sustain this momentum, the nation must tackle emerging challenges, including port congestion, climate adaptation, and growing competition in the region. By embracing smart port technologies, increasing container yard capacities, and expanding harbour drafts, Malaysia’s ports are well-positioned to meet future demands and remain competitive on the global stage. Malaysia’s container ports are the backbone of its economy, driving industrial growth and facilitating seamless global trade connections. Port Klang and PTP lead as internationally acclaimed transshipment hubs, while regional ports like Penang, Kuching, and Sapangar Bay cater to diverse economic demands. As Malaysia continues to invest in its maritime infrastructure and embrace technological advancements, it is well-positioned to maintain its status as a leading logistics hub in Southeast Asia and beyond.Check out newsletter now!

15 January

Private Housing Supply Trends: Hong Kong for 2024-2025

Private Housing Supply Trends: Hong Kong for 2024-2025

A CLOSER LOOK INTO THE PRIVATE HOUSING SUPPLYRecent market dynamics reveal a complex interplay between strengthening demand indicators and persistent supply concerns. While robust rental growth, population inflows, and moderating mortgage rates signal a recovery in demand, the price war in the primary market and mixed sales performance highlight ongoing supply pressures. The critical question remains: will this supply overhang outweigh the emerging demand recovery?The Housing Bureau projects 108,000 private residential units to be available in the next three to four years—a modest 10% increase from 2021's peak market levels when the home price index reached its historic high. A more meaningful assessment of market balance can be derived by analyzing the "months of supply" metric, which relates unsold units in completed projects and projects under construction to the primary transaction volume over the past 12 months.This indicator has traced a revealing pattern: from 54.4 months in December 2021, it rose significantly to 95.4 months in 2022 and peaked at 101.6 months in 2023, reflecting the downturn phase of the cycle. Recent data shows a moderation to 78.2 months as of September 2024, suggesting improving absorption dynamics. Looking ahead to 2025, assuming primary market transaction volumes normalize to 18,000 units annually (less than 10% above the projected 2024 level), the months of supply could moderate to 58.0 months by December 2025—approaching levels observed during more balanced periods, notably in 2021.While current inventory metrics indicate elevated levels of unsold units in completed projects and those under construction, forward-looking supply indicators present a contrasting picture. Most notably, the volume of potential units from disposed sites—where construction could commence immediately—has declined to 10,000 units as of September 2024, the lowest level since data collection began in 2012 and a marked decrease from 25,000 units in March 2023. This structural shift in the supply pipeline suggests potential moderation in medium term inventory growth, even as the market works through current stock levels.Meanwhile, developers' active management of their development pipelines suggests that the effective housing supply may prove more moderate than aggregate statistics indicate. Supply management strategies have emerged across multiple channels, including adjustments to construction timelines, project repurposing, and optimizing project launch schedules. SHKP's modification of its So Kwun Wat project timeline, citing design changes, exemplifies this trend. Additionally, in 2024, at least seven residential developments released a portion of their unsold units for leasing, representing an adjustment to the disposal pipeline. These strategic responses to market conditions introduce meaningful divergence between headline supply figures and realized inventory, potentially accelerating the convergence toward healthy inventory levels beyond current projections.Looking ahead, key macroeconomic headwinds that have pressured Hong Kong's residential market show signs of moderation, though geopolitical uncertainties—particularly the potential escalation of the US-China trade war—remain a primary concern. While current market conditions suggest a complex path to recovery, improving fundamentals indicate potential for market stabilization.Want to gain deeper insights into the housing market and what the future holds for you? Contact us today for personalized advice and stay ahead of the curve!Data extracted in January 2025Read more

14 January

India’s PropTech Growth & London Property Investment Boom

India’s PropTech Growth & London Property Investment Boom

India’s real estate sector is undergoing a transformative shift, driven by regulatory reforms and advancements in PropTech. Initiatives such as the Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act, 2016 (RERA) and the Digital India Land Records Modernisation Program (DILRMP) are bringing much-needed transparency and accountability to the industry. These efforts are not only empowering buyers and streamlining processes but also instilling investor confidence, paving the way for PropTech’s rapid growth. With investments in this sector expected to reach $16 billion by 2030, PropTech is redefining the industry, making it smarter, more efficient, and customer-centric.India’s emergence as the sixth-largest global market for PropTech deals highlights its growing prominence in the digital real estate ecosystem. PropTech innovations are addressing critical challenges such as affordable housing, urban sustainability, and operational inefficiencies. From digital land registries to AI-driven property management tools, technology is enabling faster transactions, smarter investments, and greener developments. As India progresses towards becoming a $10 trillion economy by 2047, PropTech will play a pivotal role in shaping sustainable urban landscapes, bridging the housing gap, and redefining the future of real estate.With regulatory momentum and technological innovation driving the sector, India’s real estate market is on track to achieve unprecedented growth and modernization. Indians Now the Largest Group of Property Owners in LondonIndians have emerged as the largest group of property owners in London, encompassing diverse categories such as long-time UK residents of Indian origin, non-resident Indians (NRIs), foreign investors, students, and families migrating for education. According to a report by Barratt London, this demographic shift highlights India's growing influence in London’s real estate market. Indians now account for 7-8% of foreign buyers, willing to invest between GBP 290,000 and GBP 450,000 in one- to three-bedroom homes.The city's established infrastructure and stable market make it a preferred choice for investors seeking rental income, with 30% of purchases aimed at rental opportunities. Additionally, the UK’s appeal lies in its Global Reputation as an Educational and Financial Hub.The competitive exchange rates and perceived safety of the UK residential market further enhance its attractiveness compared to alternatives for Indians. London’s property market has historically been a symbol of stability and growth. With demand consistently outpacing supply, especially for rental properties, Indian investors see this as a safe and lucrative avenue to diversify their portfolios.For Indian investors, owning property in London isn't just about the city itself. It also serves as a gateway to Europe, providing access to a broader global market for both personal and professional pursuits.Explore the future of India’s real estate sector and seize investment opportunities in London. Start your journey today!Data extracted in January 2025read more

14 January

Philippines Economic Growth & Condo Market Outlook 2024

Philippines Economic Growth & Condo Market Outlook 2024

CONSISTENT PH ECONOMIC GROWTHThe Philippines outperformed most Asian economies in 2024, posting a solid 5.8% growth in the first three quarters.Its growth outpaced key regional economies, including Malaysia (5.2%), Indonesia (5.0%), China (4.8%), and Singapore (3.8%). The third-quarter expansion of 5.2% came on the back of robust capital formation and accelerated government spending. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) noted the resilience of the economy, especially in the face of weather-related disruptions such as El Niño drought and severe typhoons, highlighting the strength of the country's recovery.It said inflation, which averaged 6.0% in 2023, eased to 3.2% by November 2024, within the government's target range. The moderation in inflation was led by a drop in rice prices, which fell from 22.5% in June to 5.1% in November, following the implementation of Executive Order (EO) 62 that lowered rice import tariffs.Opportunities in Metro Manila Condo OversupplyRecently, Colliers Philippines has shared a report that there is an oversupply of condominiums worth 34-months while this might sound concerning, we see that this could be a temporary correction in the market and a possible shift to “buyer’s market”.The Metro Manila real estate is known for it’s great capital appreciation with an average of 15% annually in which made the prices really high. While this benefited investors who have purchased properties on the earlier stage this also made it difficult for those who want to invest today.As there are more properties available in the market, we can see a transition to a market more favorable to the buyers with potential discounted price for the secondary market. During pandemic, the developers also provided discounts and more flexible payment terms than enable the market to pick up.With the exodus of Philippines Offshore Gaming Operators or POGO which occupied almost 20% of office supplies and around 10% of residential properties, we also see a potential decline in rental rates which offers an opportunity to others.Ready to invest in the Philippines' thriving economy and real estate market? Explore opportunities in Metro Manila condos today!Data extracted in January 2025read more

14 January

Real Estate vs Banking: Why Real Estate Wins in Pakistan

Real Estate vs Banking: Why Real Estate Wins in Pakistan

In Pakistan, investors often face a daunting task when deciding where to allocate their resources. While banking deposits and other investment avenues are available, real estate stands out as a superior option. This article examines the reasons why real estate investment outperforms banking deposits and other investment options in Pakistan.Higher Returns on InvestmentReal estate investments in Pakistan offer significantly higher returns compared to banking deposits. According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the average annual return on real estate investments in Pakistan ranges between 15% and 20%. In contrast, banking deposits typically offer interest rates ranging from 5% to 8% per annum. Long-Term AppreciationReal estate values in Pakistan have consistently appreciated over the long term, providing investors with a reliable source of wealth creation. A report by the Pakistan Real Estate Investment Trust (PREIT)Rental IncomeInvesting in real estate also generates a steady stream of rental income, which can help offset mortgage payments and other expenses. According to data from Zameen.com, a leading real estate portal in Pakistan, rental yields in major cities range from 4% to 6% perannum.Tax BenefitsReal estate investments in Pakistan come with attractive tax benefits, including exemptions on capital gains tax and deductions on mortgage interest payments. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) allows investors to claim a deduction of up to PKR 2 million (approximately USD 12,000) on mortgage interest payments.Diversification BenefitsReal estate offers diversification benefits, as property prices are not directly correlated with stock market fluctuations or other investment options. A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlights that the correlation coefficient between real estate prices and stock market returns in Pakistan is approximately 0.2, indicating a low level of correlation. ConclusionIn conclusion, real estate investment is a superior option for investors in Pakistan, offering higher returns, long-term appreciation, rental income, tax benefits, and diversification opportunities. While banking deposits and other investment options are available, real estate stands out as a stable and lucrative investment avenue.Unlock the potential of real estate investment in Pakistan—visit IQI Global for expert insights and opportunities!Data extracted in January 2025Read more

14 January

Vietnam Land Market: Key Trends and 2024 Insights

Vietnam Land Market: Key Trends and 2024 Insights

Ba Ria land – this is a market that benefits greatly from the important infrastructure being deployed such as Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway, Cai Mep Seaport, the greatest potential in this area is that the land will directly serve industrial parks, experts working at ports and airports. In the past 2 years, undeveloped land prices in this area have decreased by 28%, with an average price of 11-13 million VND/m2, however, prices have also recovered strongly from the bottom of about 20%.In the past 2 years, land prices in this area have decreased by about 8% compared to 2023 but are relatively stable in 2024, with an average price of 16 million to 18 million VND/m2.Game changer: Eco Retreat project, Vinhomes Duc Hoa project will be implemented in 2025 and will certainly have a new price much higher than the general level. Dong Nai land - a bustling coordinate with many large government projects being implemented such as Long Thanh Airport, Ben Luc Long Thanh Expressway, Ring Road 3, Bien Hoa Vung Tau Expressway. Potential revolves around housing needs for experts, workers working in industrial parks and Long Thanh International Airport.Ba Ria land – this is a market that benefits greatly from the important infrastructure being deployed such as Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway, Cai Mep Seaport, the greatest potential in this area is that the land will directly serve industrial parks, experts working at ports and airports.In the past 2 years, undeveloped land prices in this area have decreased by 28%, with an average price of 11-13 million VND/m2, however, prices have also recovered strongly from the bottom of about 20%. In 2 years, land prices in this area have decreased by 14%, the average price up to this point fluctuates at 17-20 million/m2, prices have started to stop decreasing since September 2024.Game Changer: The Long Thanh Airport project is expected to complete in phase 1 in 2026, which can have a big impact not only on undeveloped land but also have a profound impact on many other segments and fieldsBinh Phuoc land: Compared to the suburban land markets, this is a market with a sharp decline in prices with a reduction rate of nearly 40% -50% and is currently still trading around 10 million/m2.Binh Duong land: This is a rare market that has maintained a price increase from 2019 to 2024, with increasingly complete regional infrastructure (My Phuoc Tan Van, expansion of National Highway 13), economic growth, industry and especially strong FDI absorption attracting the top 2 immigrants in the country. The average transaction price on the market fluctuates between 25-30 million/m2.With the increasing selling prices of central HCM projects, the trend of moving to suburban markets is inevitable, and with the land market almost frozen in the past 2 years, this could be the beginning of a recovery phase for a new cycle with a series of important infrastructures coming into operation in 2026.Discover the latest land market trends in Vietnam—read the full article and uncover investment opportunities for 2024Data extracted in January 2025Read more

14 January

GTA Home Sales Up 40% in November 2024

GTA Home Sales Up 40% in November 2024

In November 2024, Canada’s real estate market demonstrated strong growth, driven by lower borrowing costs and robust population increases. National home sales rose 7.7% month-over-month in October, with a 30% increase compared to the previous year. Theaverage home price reached $696,166, marking a 4% monthly and 6% annual rise, although the MLS Benchmark price showed slight declines.Regionally, the Greater Toronto Area experienced consistent sales growth and a 0.8% monthly price increase to $1.09 million. Alberta set new price records, with Calgary and Edmonton showing significant annual growth of 13.8% and 11%, respectively. Interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada fueled buyer activity, while population growth of 3% year-over year continued to drive demand. The outlook remains positive, although potential supply shortages may place further pressure on prices.TorontoVancouver Quebec In November 2024, GTA REALTORS® reported 5,875 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System, marking a 40.1% increase from the 4,194 sales recorded in November 2023. New listings entered into the MLS® System totaled 11,592, reflecting a 6.6% year-over-year increase. Seasonally adjusted figures showed that November sales increased compared to October.The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark declined by 1.2% year-over-year in November 2024, representing a smaller annual decrease than in previous months. Meanwhile, the average selling price rose by 2.6% from November 2023, reaching $1,106,050. The stronger growth in the average price, compared to the HPI Composite Benchmark, is attributed to a higher proportion of detached home sales this year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price experienced a slight decline compared to October.VancouverIn November 2024, Metro Vancouver's real estate market experienced a 28% year-over-year increase in home sales, continuing the strong demand observed in October. A total of 2,181 residential sales were recorded, though this figure remained 12.8% below the 10-year seasonal average. New listings rose 10.6% year-over-year to 3,725, slightly exceeding the seasonal average, while active listings reached 13,245, reflecting a 21.2% annual increase.The sales-to-active listings ratio stood at 17.1%, with detached homes at 12.7%, attached homes at 23.1%, and apartments at 18.7%. This balance kept prices stable; however, continued demand could exert upward pressure if listings fail to keep pace.Benchmark prices were $1,172,100 for all homes (-0.9% YoY, stable MoM), $1,997,400 for detached homes (+1% YoY), $752,800 for apartments (-1.2% YoY), and $1,117,600 for townhouses (+1.8% YoY). Townhouses demonstrated the strongest sales growth, rising 42.7% year-over-year. Explore the latest market insights and discover what’s driving real estate trends in November 2024—read the article now!Data extracted in January 2025Read more

14 January

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