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Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2022 and beyond

Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2022 and beyond

Entering H2 of 2022, all eyes are on global macroeconomic outlook. Food and energy prices are rising and so is the inflation rate. What can we expect from the global macroeconomic?Content Can recession take care of inflation? Rate hikes expectation in the coming months | Year-end call Oil Market Prices Pivot towards North | Still Bullish Mobile payment outlook Real-time payment: 25.5 Billion How economies & sectors are shaping up post CovidCan recession take care of inflation?The recession has arrived in many economies, including the USA, after knocking on the doors since April 2022. The market is asking: Can recession break the inflation cycle? And then commence Q.E. in the global markets. We have already mentioned in our newsletter in May, and June 2022 that 3 shocks are coming in the global financial markets, i.e. inflation shock, recession shock, and rates shock. According to the latest report from Bank of America: the coming recession has been mostly priced in by the market, and from lows on June 16, long-duration assets are up considerable: biotech 33%, China tech 31%, homebuilders 20%. All these serve to validate the bond rally.The bond market is back. Inflation remains sticky, and it is the dormant risk that Powell will do something unexpected when oil and gasoline return to all-time highs, prompting Powell to take out the heavy hawkish policy. A few points to consider: August 4, 2020, marked the lowest 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (0.5%) in the republic's history; the past 2 years' yield jumped 300bps to peak at 3.5% June 14. We expect the FED to hike interest rates like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JPM.Rate hikes expectation in the coming months | Year-end callJuly75 bpsDoneSept50 bpsExpectedNov25 bpsExpectedDec25 bpsExpectedOil Market Prices Pivot towards North | Still BullishWarren Buffett is buying oil and gas stocks. According to Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13F filing, he recentlypurchased approximately $26B of Chevron (CVX) shares and $13B of Occidental Petroleum (OXY). As of the end of March, Berkshire owns about 24% of the outstanding shares of OXY and 8% of CVX. These aggressive purchases of significant stakes in large oil and gas companies indicate Buffett's view on the sector. They are meaningful in the face of lagging sentiment and positioning in this oil bull market. The oil market is in normal backwardation, and the, i.e. Spot price is higher than the future price. Simply backwardation means a bullish trend. The oil market will meander around $110 to $150/ barrel by December 31-2022.Mobile payment outlookDigitalization of assets and finance is happening at a fast pace. The mobile payment market is on the upsurge. According to Statista: "China's leading in the adoption of mobile payments. However, while the penetration rate beats all others, China's far from leading in all things digital payments. The country's average annual transaction value per user is still lower than a few others. The average Chinese consumer will spend roughly US$4,000 using payment apps in 2022, compared to nearly US$13,000 in the U.S. and more than US$14,000 in the U.K.Real-time payment: 25.5 BillionRegarding real-time payment transactions, India registered over 25.5 billion in 2020, 60% higher than China. The value of digital payments in India is projected to grow 3 times and touch US$1 trillion by 2026 compared to US$300 billion in 2021. UNQUOTE. Many other significant players in the Chinese tech scene have successfully rolled out their payment services, including J.D., Tencent and Huawei. Bestpay, meanwhile, waslaunched by another state-owned actor, China Telecom. The only top brand in the list of top 8 was Apple, at a 19 percent penetration rate with mobile payment consumers.How economies & sectors are shaping up post Covid?Selected categories of the economy contributed to the change in GDP from the first quarter to the second in 2022. Rate of return on various investments from January 1-2022, to July 31-2022. The usual monthly snapshot of financial returns for various investments.The article is written Shan Saeed, Chief Economist at Juwai IQI.Stay ahead of the economy news with IQI ! Interested to invest and step up your game? Leave your interest below![hubspot type=form portal=5699703 id=85ebae59-f425-419b-a59d-3531ad1df948]

15 September, 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – September 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – September 2022

The recession has arrived in many economies, including in the USA, after knocking on the doors since April 2022. According to Bank of America - the coming recession has been mostly priced in the lows on June 16.What else have you missed in August 2022?Download the newsletter to read more about it:[sdm_download id="48578" fancy="0"]

5 September, 2022

النشرة الأخبارية الشهرية - يوليو 2022

النشرة الأخبارية الشهرية - يوليو 2022

تغيرت كيمياء الأسواق المالية بشكل كبير في السنوات الخمس عشرة الماضية. لا يزال الاقتصاد العالمي متقلبًا وسط الهشاشة المالية وأسواق الأسهم والسندات.ماذا فاتك في يونيو؟قم بتنزيل النشرة الإخبارية لقراءة المزيد عنها:[sdm_download id="47434" fancy="0"]

11 August, 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – August 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – August 2022

The global macro economy finds it challenging to attain stability as many unfamiliar variables are active. At the same time, stagflation, recession, and inflation become market buzzwords.What else have you missed in July 2022?Download the newsletter to read more about it:[sdm_download id="47303" fancy="0"]

5 August, 2022

居外 IQI 月讯 – 房地产市场 – 2022年7月

居外 IQI 月讯 – 房地产市场 – 2022年7月

金融市场里的化学反应在过去十五年经历了戏剧性的转变。在金融市场脆弱，以及股市和债市低迷之际，全球经济情况仍不稳定。2022年6月，你还错过了什么？下载月讯，以了解更多：Simplified [sdm_download id="47130" fancy="0"]Traditional [sdm_download id="47127" fancy="0"]

28 July, 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – July 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – July 2022

The alchemy of financial markets has changed dramatically in the last 15 years. The global economy remains volatile amid financial fragilities and equity and bond markets.What else have you missed in June?Download the newsletter to read more about it:[sdm_download id="46638" fancy="0"]

30 June, 2022

居外 IQI 月讯 - 房地产市场 - 2022年6月

居外 IQI 月讯 - 房地产市场 - 2022年6月

全球经济逐步走向脆弱。接下来的三个季度里，市场将遭受多次冲击。2022年5月，你还错过了什么？下载月讯，以了解更多：Traditional Chinese: [sdm_download id="46554" fancy="0"]Simplified Chinese: [sdm_download id="46559" fancy="0"] 

27 June, 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – June 2022

Juwai IQI Newsletter – Real Estate Market – June 2022

The global economy is moving into fragility, and we will witness a lot of shocks in the markets in the remaining three quaters.What else have you missed in May 2022?Download the newsletter to read more about it: [sdm_download id="46104" fancy="0"]

1 June, 2022

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