{"id":38344,"date":"2021-10-26T14:14:55","date_gmt":"2021-10-26T06:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iqiglobal.com\/blog\/?p=38344"},"modified":"2024-08-01T11:19:37","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T03:19:37","slug":"the-black-swan-of-2021-will-real-estate-be-the-investment-of-choice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iqiglobal.com\/blog\/cn\/the-black-swan-of-2021-will-real-estate-be-the-investment-of-choice\/","title":{"rendered":"2021\u5e74\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5c06\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u4f18\u9009\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

“黑天鹅事件”隐喻那些意外事件：它们很可能发生在预期之外；在发生之前，没有任何前例可以证明，但发生了，就会产生极大的涟漪效应。<\/span><\/p>\n

在疫情冲击下，我们正在处于这个黑天鹅效应的时刻，这期间究竟该如何抓住趋势，顺势做出投资决策？<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

浅谈2021<\/strong>的黑天鹅风暴<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
作为罕见状况的黑天鹅，一旦发生将带来连锁效应。<\/span><\/p>\n
就如这篇中央通讯社的新闻<\/a><\/span>提及，全球通膨5大压力来源齐齐冲击，所导致的物价高涨的情况，恐非短期之影响。<\/span><\/p>\n
$\"黑天鹅$ <\/p>\n
全球通膨5大压力来源：<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
能源：全球能源供应短缺、欧美汽油天然气飙升、中国限制电量供应。欧洲和美国汽油价格今年分别已飙涨超过350%和120%。<\/span><\/li>\n
晶片：晶片价格不断攀升，这带来的影响将扩及众多产品，从电子装置、汽车、电话到洗衣机。<\/span><\/li>\n
环保：为引导产业转型为对环境更友善所实施的严格规定，被视为是刺激所谓“绿通膨”（greenflation）的原因。这些规定包括关闭污染环境的工厂、矿场及停用这类车辆和船只。但这也造成重要货品和服务的供应受到影响。<\/span><\/li>\n
粮食：联合国粮农组织（ Food and Agriculture Organisation，FAO）编汇的指数显示，今年1月至8月全球粮食价格上涨达30%，反映广泛的物价上涨压力。<\/span><\/li>\n
薪资：随着物价攀涨，消费者对于未来通膨趋势也看升，进而将要求调高薪资。<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
因为新冠疫情的关系，各国中央银行大量印制钞票更可能加速完美风暴的形成。甚至有专家预测，在新冠疫情期间大量印制钞票，只延迟上述危机的发生，甚至会因为大量印制钞票而衍生另外一个问题。<\/span><\/p>\n
举个例子，你要购买一双球鞋，它的价格已随着制造成本、劳工成本、运输成本、能源成本的飙涨而提高。<\/span><\/p>\n
阅读更多：在马来西亚，这5大投资类型最受欢迎<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
黑天鹅效应中的投资决策<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
新冠疫情缓和后，许多地方行业出现了类似报复性的消费。最终的情况是人们对未来市场趋于乐观，市场流动的钱币增加；甚至预期所要买的产品会因为成本的逐渐增加，而提高价格。<\/span><\/p>\n
$\"黑天鹅$ <\/p>\n
在此情况下，错失恐惧症（又称社群恐慌症，FOMO）^{1<\/sup>的爆发只是时间上的问题。因此，我们不难发现，完美风暴（超级通膨）^{2<\/sup>背后的两只黑天鹅若隐若现，即市场货币流通的增加、商品后面所有的生产成本的飙涨。一旦超级通膨冲击，随着通货膨胀，银行债务的真正价值会随而下降。<\/span><\/p>\n}}
完美风暴（超级通膨）目前看来并非无的放矢，我们一生都没见过的超级通膨是否悄悄来临？<\/span><\/p>\n
在这个时刻，马来西亚是否能从风暴中独善其身？<\/span><\/p>\n
对抗通货膨胀，房地产仍是最佳工具；你愿意抓钞票还是资产？<\/span><\/p>\n
相信你已经有了答案。<\/span><\/p>\n
本文由IQI房地产投资专家Sean Lee撰稿。如有投资兴趣，可点击下方名片联系咨询。<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
<\/span><\/span> <\/iframe><\/p>\n编按<\/em>1<\/em>：错失恐惧症（又称社群恐慌症，<\/em>FOMO<\/em>），是指一种由患得患失所产生持续性的焦虑，得上这种症的人总会感到别人在自己不在时经历了什么非常有意义的事情。<\/em> 这种社会焦慮被描绘为想要与别人在干什么至始至终保持关联的渴望。（取自维基百科）<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n编按<\/em>2<\/em>：超级通货膨胀，指通货膨胀率在<\/em>100%<\/em>以上。发生这种通货膨胀时，价格持续猛涨，人们都尽快地使货币脱手，从而大大加快货币流通速度。（取自百度百科）<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<hr>\n想要买房，作为对抗通货膨胀的工具，<\/span>不妨考虑IQI。<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIQI旗下专业房地产中介大约21,000人，拥有丰富的房产投资知识和经验，能够给你提供全面的投资建议。<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n留下你的讯息，IQI咨询团队将立即联系你！<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<script>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.hsFormsOnReady = window.hsFormsOnReady || [];\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.hsFormsOnReady.push(()=>{\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\thbspt.forms.create({\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tportalId: 5699703,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tformId: \"c063034a-f66d-41ab-881b-6e6a3f275c33\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget: \"#hbspt-form-1776783946000-2847068108\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tregion: \"na1\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t})});\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hbspt-form\" id=\"hbspt-form-1776783946000-2847068108\"><\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"“黑天鹅事件”隐喻那些意外事件：它们很可能发生在预期之外；在发生之前，没有任何前例可以证明，但发生了，就会产生极大的涟漪效应。 在疫情冲击下，我们正在处于这个黑天鹅效应的时刻，这期间究竟该如何抓住趋势，顺势做出投资决策？   浅谈2021的黑天鹅风暴 作为罕见状况的黑天鹅，一旦发生将带来连锁效应。 就如这篇中央通讯社的新闻提及，全球通膨5大压力来源齐齐冲击，所导致的物价高涨的情况，恐非短期之影响。 全球通膨5大压力来源： 能源：全球能源供应短缺、 欧美汽油天然气飙升、中国限制电量供应。欧洲和美国汽油价格今年分别已飙涨超过350%和120%。 晶片：晶片价格不断攀升，这带来的影响将扩及众多产品，从电子装置、汽车、电话到洗衣机。 环保：为引导产业转型为对环境更友善所实施的严格规定，被视为是刺激所谓“绿通膨”（greenflation）的原因。这些规定包括关闭污染环境的工厂、矿场及停用这类车辆和船只。但这也造成重要货品和服务的供应受到影响。 粮食：联合国粮农组织（ Food and Agriculture Organisation，FAO）编汇的指数显示，今年1月至8月全球粮食价格上涨达30%，反映广泛的物价上涨压力。 薪资：随着物价攀涨，消费者对于未来通膨趋势也看升，进而将要求调高薪资。 因为新冠疫情的关系，各国中央银行大量印制钞票更可能加速完美风暴的形成。甚至有专家预测，在新冠疫情期间大量印制钞票，只延迟上述危机的发生，甚至会因为大量印制钞票而衍生另外一个问题。 举个例子，你要购买一双球鞋，它的价格已随着制造成本、劳工成本、运输成本、能源成本的飙涨而提高。 阅读更多：在马来西亚，这5大投资类型最受欢迎   黑天鹅效应中的投资决策 新冠疫情缓和后， 许多地方行业出现了类似报复性的消费。最终的情况是人们对未来市场趋于乐观，市场流动的钱币增加；甚至预期所要买的产品会因为成本的逐渐增加，而提高价格。 在此情况下，错失恐惧症（又称社群恐慌症，FOMO）1的爆发只是时间上的问题。因此，我们不难发现，完美风暴（超级通膨）2背后的两只黑天鹅若隐若现，即市场货币流通的增加、商品后面所有的生产成本的飙涨。一旦超级通膨冲击，随着通货膨胀，银行债务的真正价值会随而下降。 完美风暴（超级通膨）目前看来并非无的放矢，我们一生都没见过的超级通膨是否悄悄来临？ 在这个时刻，马来西亚是否能从风暴中独善其身？ 对抗通货膨胀，房地产仍是最佳工具；你愿意抓钞票还是资产？ 相信你已经有了答案。 本文由IQI房地产投资专家Sean Lee撰稿。如有投资兴趣，可点击下方名片联系咨询。   编按1：错失恐惧症（又称社群恐慌症，FOMO），是指一种由患得患失所产生持续性的焦虑，得上这种症的人总会感到别人在自己不在时经历了什么非常有意义的事情。 这种社会焦慮被描绘为想要与别人在干什么至始至终保持关联的渴望。（取自维基百科） 编按2：超级通货膨胀，指通货膨胀率在100%以上。发生这种通货膨胀时，价格持续猛涨，人们都尽快地使货币脱手，从而大大加快货币流通速度。（取自百度百科） 想要买房，作为对抗通货膨胀的工具，不妨考虑IQI。 IQI旗下专业房地产中介大约21,000人，拥有丰富的房产投资知识和经验，能够给你提供全面的投资建议。 留下你的讯息，IQI咨询团队将立即联系你！<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":38352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","postBodyCss":"","postBodyMargin":[],"postBodyPadding":[],"postBodyBackground":{"backgroundType":"classic","gradient":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[261],"tags":[10670,5150,5178],"class_list":["post-38344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-261","tag-ask-agent","tag--cn","tag--zh"],"yoast_head":"\n<title>2021\u5e74\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5c06\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u4f18\u9009\uff1f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e \u9ed1\u5929\u9e45 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