{"id":32264,"date":"2021-06-16T10:46:43","date_gmt":"2021-06-16T02:46:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iqiglobal.com\/blog\/?p=32264"},"modified":"2024-02-15T11:32:24","modified_gmt":"2024-02-15T03:32:24","slug":"daniel-ho-column-when-are-overseas-buyers-return-to-thailand-property-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iqiglobal.com\/blog\/cn\/daniel-ho-column-when-are-overseas-buyers-return-to-thailand-property-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Daniel Ho\u4e13\u680f\uff1a\u5916\u56fd\u4e70\u5bb6\u4f55\u65f6\u91cd\u8fd4\u6cf0\u56fd\u697c\u5e02\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

亚洲房产科技集团居外IQI（Juwai IQI）最近从泰国政府获得的泰国公寓外国买家购房数据表明，疫情使外国人购泰国公寓交易大幅下降。而居外IQI自己的买家询盘数据则表明，随着疫情的消退，中国和亚洲其他地区的买家将重返泰国楼市。疫苗接种和国际旅行是促成反弹的两个关键因素。<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

外国买家购房交易量下降34%<\/strong><\/h4>\n

泰国“房地产信息中心”最近发布的数据显示，与2019年相比，2020年泰国的外国人公寓房购买总量下降了34%。跌幅最大的买家来自日本，2020年的交易量减少了58.6%，俄罗斯买家的跌幅为51.4%。中国买家的交易下降了31.1%。<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
按主要买家国籍划分的公寓交易情况（2018 – 2020年）<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

曼谷和附近的春武里府占了外国买家交易的最大份额，仅在这两个地方就有80%的外国买家公寓交易。尽管外国买家很集中，但这里的住房市场很大且多样化，外国买家的交易占市场的份额相对较小。在曼谷尤其如此，外国买家只占所有公寓购房交易的7.8%。<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
外国买家公寓交易最多的省份（2018-2020）<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

新发布的数据还显示，大多数外国买家的交易价格低于500万泰铢（约合102万人民币元）的房产。其他资料显示，泰国最昂贵的市场–曼谷的公寓价格中位数约为600万泰铢。<\/span><\/p>\n

尽管77.6%的外国买家交易集中在最低价格区间，但外国买家占泰国全国低价位买家的比例不到十分之一。在500万泰铢至5000万泰铢以上的高价位区间，外国买家占到了五分之一的交易。<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
按价格范围划分的外国买家公寓交易情况（2018 – 2020年）<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

外国在泰国买房何时恢复？<\/strong><\/h4>\n

泰国政府房地产信息中心执行主任Vichai Viratkapan博士在给Juwai IQI的独家评论中说，外国人购买泰国住宅公寓的全面反弹取决于两个因素。”由于大多数外国买家是中国人，第一个因素是中国政府何时开放国人海外旅行。在中国人大量到来之前，交易量将保持低位。把公寓卖给没有亲眼看买家比较困难。”<\/span><\/p>\n

第二个因素则取决于曼谷的政府，取决于疫苗接种的步伐。<\/span><\/p>\n

“一旦政府能够为人们接种疫苗，有外国游客就会很安全，就有可能重新开始旅行。同时，开发商正在通过关注国内市场和低价单位来进行调整。”<\/span><\/p>\n

目前泰国房产界人士对政府对外国买家的监管提出了一些改革建议，目的是为了增加外国投资和刺激泰国经济，其中一项建议是要求政府将外国买家拥有权限制提高到目前的49%以上。<\/span><\/p>\n

Viratkapan博士认为政府应该采取更有针对性的行动来刺激疫情的外国人房地产购买。”没有必要在整个国家增加公寓的外国人所有权，”他说。”最好是有所侧重。我们建议可以在个别房产项目上提高其外国人所有权门槛，但只在曼谷、春武里、清迈、Samut Prakan和普吉岛的某些地区实施。<\/span><\/p>\n

“政府的目标应该是将外国买家的交易集中在较高的价格范围。这将防止外国买家与国内买家竞争。如果政府想把外国买家的门槛提高到49%以上，它应该只针对高价位的单位，而不是低价位的单位。”<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

中国买家的机会<\/strong><\/h4>\n

IQI泰国公司驻曼谷总经理Somsak Chutisilp说, “与2019年相比，2020年曼谷的中国买家总销售额下降了50%，在第三波疫情之前，仍有许多中国买家对曼谷的房产感兴趣，他们希望在泰国开放后立即前往泰国。但在泰国发生第3波疫情后，中国买家的询问明显减少。在经历了四个季度的快速、两位数的下降后，中国人的对泰国住宅房购买兴趣在过去两个季度出现了反弹。”<\/span><\/p>\n

Juwai IQI买家询盘数据显示，2021年第一季度，中国买家对泰国房产的询盘量比一年前增加了38%。由于一年前在疫情发生期间的交易数量呈自由落体下滑，这一增长不无夸大了，但仍然是一个值得欢迎的趋势。<\/span><\/p>\n

现在要知道这种反弹是否会在2021年第二季度维持下去还为时过早。面对泰国和其他几个传统的外国买家来源国重新出现的疫情，它也可能会崩溃。<\/span><\/p>\n

我们认为想炒底买房的买家应该现在下手。旅行重新开放后，楼市繁荣就会开始。泰国的房地产市场受到了疫情的沉重打击，但亚洲买家的需求仍然存在。<\/span><\/p>\n

Juwai IQI亚洲买家数据显示，泰国是亚洲跨境买家的第三大热门目的地，占所有亚洲买家兴趣的10.6%。对中国买家而言，则泰国是最受欢迎的海外置业目的地，自2018年以来一直如此。Juwai IQI询盘数据跟踪了消费者通过我们的平台进行的购买查询的数量。查询的例子包括询问房产的价格，出价，或联系中介或开发商以了解更多关于房源的信息。<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

根据Juwai IQI在泰国的调查，泰国房地产行业人士预计新房平均价格在2021年将下降3.9%。对二手房的预测更糟糕，同期的平均价格将下降6.7%。<\/span><\/p>\n

对于中国买家来说，现在的泰国代表着一个机会。不是每个人都敢于在这样不确定的时期购买，但有许多具有前瞻性的中国房地产买家正在泰国购买投资房、或第二居所，甚至未来的主要住所。<\/span><\/p>\n

Somsak Chutisilp说，”中国人目前仍然不能旅行泰国或其他大多数国家。当涉及到价值低于100万人民币的房产时，我们可以利用社交媒体和直播，让他们虚拟参观曼谷的房产。这使得期房项目和已建成项目的买家更容易做出购买决定。<\/span><\/p>\n

“对于豪宅来说，这就比较困难了，因为愿意在没有来参观房产的情况下做出如此大额购买决定的买家比较少。即使是在疫情之前购买的买家，也仍然无法来考察他们的完工住宅。”<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

普吉岛新公寓销售一度下降51%<\/strong><\/h4>\n

IQI普吉岛的副总裁Nasupha Suwansri说，”普吉岛房地产市场受到疫情的严重打击，因为该行业严重依赖旅游业。作为该岛房地产行业的主要驱动力的外国买家几乎在一夜之间消失了。2020年新出售的公寓数量只有1,966套，比2019年的4,036套低了2,000多套。<\/span><\/p>\n

“中国对泰国房产的兴趣仍然非常强烈，即使需要比预期更长的时间才能回到这里。我们预计，当市场回归时，被压抑的需求会出现繁荣。中国经济正在迅速恢复。与疫情前相比，中国消费者会有多余的储蓄，他们可能会投资于房地产。<\/span><\/p>\n

“旅游的重新开放肯定会使2022年的销售额超过2019年的水平。”<\/span><\/p>\n

普吉岛的房地产开发商Utopia Corporation的物业销售总监（亚太区）Winnie Sun说，”2020年3月是疫情袭击全球的时候，我们在那个月只卖出了5个单位，与2019年3月售出的40个单位相比，大幅减少。<\/span><\/p>\n

“现在，买家都知道疫情不会迅速消失，但生活必须继续下去。在2021年3月，我们售出了50套，比之前的月度记录还要多。我们相信，中国人一年多来不能去普吉岛，他们的购买需求和欲望现在积压很高。<\/span><\/p>\n

“疫情让不少中国买家有了一个’B计划选项’的心态。去年被关了一整年，他们中的大多数人都希望自己有一个第二居所。这就是去年我们的Utopia Thalang低价别墅项目销售了100套的原因，我们期望我们新推出的别墅项目Utopia Yamu能取得同样业绩。”<\/span><\/p>\n

作者：Daniel Ho，IQI Global董事总经理<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n
阅读原文-
\n<\/strong><\/a><\/span>《财新网》<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

想知道更多？<\/strong><\/span>
\nIQI中文部落格，一键轻松得知房地产大小事！<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

[penci_button link=”https:\/\/iqiglobal.com\/blog\/”]点此浏览[\/penci_button]<\/h4>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

亚洲房产科技集团居外IQI（Juwai IQI）最近从泰国政府获得的泰国公寓外国买家购房数据表明，疫情使外国人购泰国公寓交易大幅下降。而居外IQI自己的买家询盘数据则表明，随着疫情的消退，中国和亚洲其他地区的买家将重返泰国楼市。疫苗接种和国际旅行是促成反弹的两个关键因素。   外国买家购房交易量下降34% 泰国“房地产信息中心”最近发布的数据显示，与2019年相比，2020年泰国的外国人公寓房购买总量下降了34%。跌幅最大的买家来自日本，2020年的交易量减少了58.6%，俄罗斯买家的跌幅为51.4%。中国买家的交易下降了31.1%。 曼谷和附近的春武里府占了外国买家交易的最大份额，仅在这两个地方就有80%的外国买家公寓交易。尽管外国买家很集中，但这里的住房市场很大且多样化，外国买家的交易占市场的份额相对较小。在曼谷尤其如此，外国买家只占所有公寓购房交易的7.8%。 新发布的数据还显示，大多数外国买家的交易价格低于500万泰铢（约合102万人民币元）的房产。其他资料显示，泰国最昂贵的市场–曼谷的公寓价格中位数约为600万泰铢。 尽管77.6%的外国买家交易集中在最低价格区间，但外国买家占泰国全国低价位买家的比例不到十分之一。在500万泰铢至5000万泰铢以上的高价位区间，外国买家占到了五分之一的交易。   外国在泰国买房何时恢复？ 泰国政府房地产信息中心执行主任Vichai Viratkapan博士在给Juwai IQI的独家评论中说，外国人购买泰国住宅公寓的全面反弹取决于两个因素。”由于大多数外国买家是中国人，第一个因素是中国政府何时开放国人海外旅行。在中国人大量到来之前，交易量将保持低位。把公寓卖给没有亲眼看买家比较困难。” 第二个因素则取决于曼谷的政府，取决于疫苗接种的步伐。 “一旦政府能够为人们接种疫苗，有外国游客就会很安全，就有可能重新开始旅行。同时，开发商正在通过关注国内市场和低价单位来进行调整。” 目前泰国房产界人士对政府对外国买家的监管提出了一些改革建议，目的是为了增加外国投资和刺激泰国经济，其中一项建议是要求政府将外国买家拥有权限制提高到目前的49%以上。 Viratkapan博士认为政府应该采取更有针对性的行动来刺激疫情的外国人房地产购买。”没有必要在整个国家增加公寓的外国人所有权，”他说。”最好是有所侧重。我们建议可以在个别房产项目上提高其外国人所有权门槛，但只在曼谷、春武里、清迈、Samut Prakan和普吉岛的某些地区实施。 “政府的目标应该是将外国买家的交易集中在较高的价格范围。这将防止外国买家与国内买家竞争。如果政府想把外国买家的门槛提高到49%以上，它应该只针对高价位的单位，而不是低价位的单位。”   中国买家的机会 IQI泰国公司驻曼谷总经理Somsak Chutisilp说, “与2019年相比，2020年曼谷的中国买家总销售额下降了50%，在第三波疫情之前，仍有许多中国买家对曼谷的房产感兴趣，他们希望在泰国开放后立即前往泰国。但在泰国发生第3波疫情后，中国买家的询问明显减少。在经历了四个季度的快速、两位数的下降后，中国人的对泰国住宅房购买兴趣在过去两个季度出现了反弹。” Juwai IQI买家询盘数据显示，2021年第一季度，中国买家对泰国房产的询盘量比一年前增加了38%。由于一年前在疫情发生期间的交易数量呈自由落体下滑，这一增长不无夸大了，但仍然是一个值得欢迎的趋势。 现在要知道这种反弹是否会在2021年第二季度维持下去还为时过早。面对泰国和其他几个传统的外国买家来源国重新出现的疫情，它也可能会崩溃。 我们认为想炒底买房的买家应该现在下手。旅行重新开放后，楼市繁荣就会开始。泰国的房地产市场受到了疫情的沉重打击，但亚洲买家的需求仍然存在。 Juwai IQI亚洲买家数据显示，泰国是亚洲跨境买家的第三大热门目的地，占所有亚洲买家兴趣的10.6%。对中国买家而言，则泰国是最受欢迎的海外置业目的地，自2018年以来一直如此。Juwai IQI询盘数据跟踪了消费者通过我们的平台进行的购买查询的数量。查询的例子包括询问房产的价格，出价，或联系中介或开发商以了解更多关于房源的信息。 根据Juwai IQI在泰国的调查，泰国房地产行业人士预计新房平均价格在2021年将下降3.9%。对二手房的预测更糟糕，同期的平均价格将下降6.7%。 对于中国买家来说，现在的泰国代表着一个机会。不是每个人都敢于在这样不确定的时期购买，但有许多具有前瞻性的中国房地产买家正在泰国购买投资房、或第二居所，甚至未来的主要住所。 Somsak Chutisilp说，”中国人目前仍然不能旅行泰国或其他大多数国家。当涉及到价值低于100万人民币的房产时，我们可以利用社交媒体和直播，让他们虚拟参观曼谷的房产。这使得期房项目和已建成项目的买家更容易做出购买决定。 “对于豪宅来说，这就比较困难了，因为愿意在没有来参观房产的情况下做出如此大额购买决定的买家比较少。即使是在疫情之前购买的买家，也仍然无法来考察他们的完工住宅。”   普吉岛新公寓销售一度下降51% IQI普吉岛的副总裁Nasupha Suwansri说，”普吉岛房地产市场受到疫情的严重打击，因为该行业严重依赖旅游业。作为该岛房地产行业的主要驱动力的外国买家几乎在一夜之间消失了。2020年新出售的公寓数量只有1,966套，比2019年的4,036套低了2,000多套。 “中国对泰国房产的兴趣仍然非常强烈，即使需要比预期更长的时间才能回到这里。我们预计，当市场回归时，被压抑的需求会出现繁荣。中国经济正在迅速恢复。与疫情前相比，中国消费者会有多余的储蓄，他们可能会投资于房地产。 “旅游的重新开放肯定会使2022年的销售额超过2019年的水平。” 普吉岛的房地产开发商Utopia Corporation的物业销售总监（亚太区）Winnie Sun说，”2020年3月是疫情袭击全球的时候，我们在那个月只卖出了5个单位，与2019年3月售出的40个单位相比，大幅减少。 “现在，买家都知道疫情不会迅速消失，但生活必须继续下去。在2021年3月，我们售出了50套，比之前的月度记录还要多。我们相信，中国人一年多来不能去普吉岛，他们的购买需求和欲望现在积压很高。 “疫情让不少中国买家有了一个’B计划选项’的心态。去年被关了一整年，他们中的大多数人都希望自己有一个第二居所。这就是去年我们的Utopia Thalang低价别墅项目销售了100套的原因，我们期望我们新推出的别墅项目Utopia Yamu能取得同样业绩。” 作者：Daniel Ho，IQI Global董事总经理 阅读原文- 《财新网》…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":32280,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","postBodyCss":"","postBodyMargin":[],"postBodyPadding":[],"postBodyBackground":{"backgroundType":"classic","gradient":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[261],"tags":[5398,257,5762,5788],"class_list":["post-32264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-261","tag-daniel-ho-zh","tag-press-cn","tag-5762","tag--zh"],"yoast_head":"\nDaniel Ho\u4e13\u680f\uff1a \u5916\u56fd\u4e70\u5bb6 \u4f55\u65f6\u91cd\u8fd4 \u6cf0\u56fd\u697c\u5e02 \uff1f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u6839\u636e\u4e9a\u6d32\u623f\u4ea7\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8 \u5c45\u5916IQI \u4ece\u6cf0\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u83b7\u5f97\u7684 \u5916\u56fd\u4e70\u5bb6 \u8d2d\u4e70 \u6cf0\u56fd\u516c\u5bd3 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