{"id":103749,"date":"2025-01-08T11:28:06","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T03:28:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iqiglobal.com\/blog\/?p=103749"},"modified":"2025-01-08T11:29:31","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T03:29:31","slug":"daniel-ho-column-trump-second-term-make-malaysia-gdp-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iqiglobal.com\/blog\/cn\/daniel-ho-column-trump-second-term-make-malaysia-gdp-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Daniel\u4e13\u680f\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u53ef\u4f7f\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9aGDP\u589e\u52a0197\u4ebf\u4ee4\u5409"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

居外IQI集团认为，特朗普就任美国总统后预计实施的经济政策，可为马来西亚的国内生产总值（GDP）增加RM197亿。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

利益与风险并存<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"特朗普<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

居外IQI集团联合创始人兼集团首席执行官卡西夫·安萨里（Kashif Ansari）说：“现在要确切知道特朗普总统和美国国会共和党人将实施哪些政策还为时尚早。”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

然而，他的方向和目标是明确的。人们有特朗普第一任总统的记录作为先例，人们也可以从他挑选的内阁团队中做出推断。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

我们预计特朗普将颁布的一项关键政策是延长并加强对中国商品的关税。这将导致中国和国际企业比过去八年更进一步，将制造业从中国大陆转移到东南亚。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

仅这一项政策就能在四年内为马来西亚的国内生产总值增加1个百分点。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

国内生产总值增加一个百分点，就相当于经济规模增加RM197亿。为了使这一数字更加具体，可以考虑将其等同于东海岸铁路成本的约40%。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

国际货币基金组织（IMF）目前预测，马来西亚2024年的国内生产总值将达到4,400亿美元。其中百分之一为44亿美元，按当前汇率计算，相当于RM197亿。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

我们的预测是，特朗普新政府即使不实施任何专门针对马来西亚的政策，也会给马来西亚带来净利益。对中国商品提高征收关税可能会进一步推动对马来西亚的新投资。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

这些资金可能来自中国制造商，也可能来自至今仍在中国保持生产能力的国际制造商。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

然而，风险也是存在的。美国通胀率的上升有可能推高利率。这可能会吸引马来西亚的资本，因为他们期望在美国获得更高的回报。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

这也可能会推动美元升值，从而提高依赖进口设备的马来西亚制造商的成本并降低其出口竞争力。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

特朗普对华关税使马来西亚受益<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

在特朗普就任第一任总统的头两年，马来西亚来自中国内地和中国香港的外国直接投资（FDI）份额几乎翻了一番。从合计占外国直接投资总额的9%攀升至15.2%。<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"特朗普<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

在2017年至2021年的首届特朗普政府期间，美国的马来西亚政策重点主要是贸易和防务合作，马来西亚继续根据原有的贸易规则向美国出口。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

对马来西亚最有利的政策主要针对中国，而不是马来西亚本身。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

特朗普对中国商品征收的关税带动了数十亿令吉的投资进入马来西亚，并使马来西亚成为“中国加一”战略的重要参与者，在这一战略中，企业将生产转移到中国之外，以避免美国对中国商品征收高额关税。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

在特朗普首任总统任期内，马来西亚并不是中国投资的最大接受国，但它确实获得了超过44亿美元的此类资金。这一数字几乎是东盟成员国泰国的两倍。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

在拜登时代，这些投资持续增长，到2023年，中国内地和中国香港每年向马来西亚输送RM159.8亿（34亿美元）的外国直接投资。这是10年前的三倍。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

特朗普首届政府期间的美马贸易<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

在特朗普首届政府执政期间，美马贸易蓬勃发展，除2020年疫情肆虐外，马来西亚经济增长迅速。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021年，也就是特朗普第一任政府的最后一年，马来西亚对美国的出口额达到562亿美元，比前一年增长了27.3%。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

到那一年，马来西亚对美国的出口额比从美国购买的多出410亿美元，比前年多出三分之一。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

在特朗普首次担任总统的这几年里，马来西亚经济在2017年年均增长5.8%，2018年年均增长4.8%，2019年年均增长4.5%，2020年则因为疫情而出现萎缩。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

马来西亚房地产市场的间接收益<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

未来四年，我们预计马来西亚房价将上涨，这将使特朗普第二任总统与第一任总统有所不同。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

第一任特朗普政府对马来西亚房地产市场没有直接影响，只是向经济多伸出了一只援手，从而让消费者有更多的钱花在住房上。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

在特朗普第一任总统任期内，房价指数经历了一段价格增长下降的时期。这始于2017年，当时房价增长了6.5%。到他担任总统的最后一年，部分是由于疫情原因，这一增长率下降到了1.2%。<\/p>\n\n\n\n

阅读全文-<\/mark><\/a><\/strong>
《财新网》<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

想知道更多？
IQI中文部落格，一键轻松得知房地产大小事！<\/mark><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\n
点此浏览<\/mark><\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

居外IQI集团认为，特朗普就任美国总统后预计实施的经济政策，可为马来西亚的国内生产总值（GDP）增加RM197亿。 利益与风险并存 居外IQI集团联合创始人兼集团首席执行官卡西夫·安萨里（Kashif Ansari）说：“现在要确切知道特朗普总统和美国国会共和党人将实施哪些政策还为时尚早。” 然而，他的方向和目标是明确的。人们有特朗普第一任总统的记录作为先例，人们也可以从他挑选的内阁团队中做出推断。 我们预计特朗普将颁布的一项关键政策是延长并加强对中国商品的关税。这将导致中国和国际企业比过去八年更进一步，将制造业从中国大陆转移到东南亚。 仅这一项政策就能在四年内为马来西亚的国内生产总值增加1个百分点。 国内生产总值增加一个百分点，就相当于经济规模增加RM197亿。为了使这一数字更加具体，可以考虑将其等同于东海岸铁路成本的约40%。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）目前预测，马来西亚2024年的国内生产总值将达到4,400亿美元。其中百分之一为44亿美元，按当前汇率计算，相当于RM197亿。 我们的预测是，特朗普新政府即使不实施任何专门针对马来西亚的政策，也会给马来西亚带来净利益。对中国商品提高征收关税可能会进一步推动对马来西亚的新投资。 这些资金可能来自中国制造商，也可能来自至今仍在中国保持生产能力的国际制造商。 然而，风险也是存在的。美国通胀率的上升有可能推高利率。这可能会吸引马来西亚的资本，因为他们期望在美国获得更高的回报。 这也可能会推动美元升值，从而提高依赖进口设备的马来西亚制造商的成本并降低其出口竞争力。 特朗普对华关税使马来西亚受益 在特朗普就任第一任总统的头两年，马来西亚来自中国内地和中国香港的外国直接投资（FDI）份额几乎翻了一番。从合计占外国直接投资总额的9%攀升至15.2%。 在2017年至2021年的首届特朗普政府期间，美国的马来西亚政策重点主要是贸易和防务合作，马来西亚继续根据原有的贸易规则向美国出口。 对马来西亚最有利的政策主要针对中国，而不是马来西亚本身。 特朗普对中国商品征收的关税带动了数十亿令吉的投资进入马来西亚，并使马来西亚成为“中国加一”战略的重要参与者，在这一战略中，企业将生产转移到中国之外，以避免美国对中国商品征收高额关税。 在特朗普首任总统任期内，马来西亚并不是中国投资的最大接受国，但它确实获得了超过44亿美元的此类资金。这一数字几乎是东盟成员国泰国的两倍。 在拜登时代，这些投资持续增长，到2023年，中国内地和中国香港每年向马来西亚输送RM159.8亿（34亿美元）的外国直接投资。这是10年前的三倍。 特朗普首届政府期间的美马贸易 在特朗普首届政府执政期间，美马贸易蓬勃发展，除2020年疫情肆虐外，马来西亚经济增长迅速。 2021年，也就是特朗普第一任政府的最后一年，马来西亚对美国的出口额达到562亿美元，比前一年增长了27.3%。 到那一年，马来西亚对美国的出口额比从美国购买的多出410亿美元，比前年多出三分之一。 在特朗普首次担任总统的这几年里，马来西亚经济在2017年年均增长5.8%，2018年年均增长4.8%，2019年年均增长4.5%，2020年则因为疫情而出现萎缩。 马来西亚房地产市场的间接收益 未来四年，我们预计马来西亚房价将上涨，这将使特朗普第二任总统与第一任总统有所不同。 第一任特朗普政府对马来西亚房地产市场没有直接影响，只是向经济多伸出了一只援手，从而让消费者有更多的钱花在住房上。 在特朗普第一任总统任期内，房价指数经历了一段价格增长下降的时期。这始于2017年，当时房价增长了6.5%。到他担任总统的最后一年，部分是由于疫情原因，这一增长率下降到了1.2%。 阅读全文-《财新网》 想知道更多？IQI中文部落格，一键轻松得知房地产大小事！<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":103787,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","postBodyCss":"","postBodyMargin":[],"postBodyPadding":[],"postBodyBackground":{"backgroundType":"classic","gradient":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[261],"tags":[5398,10814,5220,257,9604,5150,5162,11612],"class_list":{"0":"post-103749","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-261","8":"tag-daniel-ho-zh","9":"tag-iqi-news-cn","10":"tag-kashif-ansari-zh","11":"tag-press-cn","12":"tag-juwai-iqi-cn","13":"tag--cn","15":"tag-11612"},"yoast_head":"\nDaniel\u4e13\u680f\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u53ef\u4f7f\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9aGDP\u589e\u52a0197\u4ebf\u4ee4\u5409<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u5c45\u5916IQI 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