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寻找最适合的海外居住投资的地方，是中产人群一个常热话题。特朗普赢得美国大选后，这话题在华人圈中再起热议。 这在外国中产人群中同样也是个老话题。在澳大利亚人口学家Simon Kuestenmacher看来，全球联合国认可的216个成员中，只有15个国家或地区适合长期投资和财产储存，而他自己所在的澳大利亚又是其中的最佳选择。尽管他的结论可能因人而异，但他通过公开数据从多个角度筛选的方法值得我们参考。 以下我们介绍一下Simon的方法，然后再从华人的角度作一些补充。 他用以下6个步骤对各国进行了筛选： 要选的国家首先要能够实现人口增长。人口减少的国家通常面临老龄化、市场萎缩和结构性挑战，可能导致社会动荡。我们要选的是一个相对发达的国家，排除那些发展水平低于萨摩亚（联合国“人类发展指数”0.7）的国家。 适当的民主与自由度不可少，要选的国家要比孟加拉国在民主指数的排名上要更好。 如果一个经济体太小，投资机会将受到严重限制。Simon认为一个理想的投资目标国家的经济规模至少要达到澳洲昆士兰州的黄金海岸的水平，即GDP不低于300亿美元。 为了确保我们在选择的国家能够享受到公平的经济份额，人均GDP是一个很好的衡量标准。所选国家人均GDP至少达到2万美元。 国家的人口规模也很重要，人口不能少于140万，以确保有足够多的人分享我们的兴趣，市场规模足够大，并且有丰富的美食和文化。 经过上述六个简单的筛选条件，最终剩下的国家有15个： 北美：美国和加拿大 欧洲：英国和法国、荷兰、比利时、瑞典、瑞士、丹麦、挪威、和爱尔兰。 中东：以色列 亚洲：新加坡 大洋洲：澳洲和新西兰 两个意外 日本由于人口下降不在榜单中，这一点可能出乎不少人的意料， 而Simon 进一步的筛选，也会让有些人没想到。 Simon说，除了上述条件，还需要考虑气候变化、全球贸易争端和地缘政治稳定等因素。例如，目前移居和投资以色列就不是最好的选择。另外，气候变化和地缘政治动荡会导致全球人口的流动，大批人口会跨界进入其他国家寻找工作机会以及避免自然灾害。这样来看，欧洲国家将会在今后一段时间内受战争、能源危机和非欧盟国家移民的负面影响，所以他从上述15国名单中去掉所有欧洲国家。 我们的结论：澳洲、新西兰、新加坡和香港 他认为澳大利亚地理位置相对孤立，可以更有效地管理人口流动，这是一个难得的优势。尽管澳大利亚的经济模式相对简单，但它几乎肯定会继续带来繁荣和人口增长，这对房地产行业尤为重要。 经过以上分析，Simon认为澳大利亚最适合将来长期的投资与居留。其实他的榜单中还有新西兰和新加坡也符合所有筛选，而对于华人来说，新加坡还更有优势。这也是为什么近年来由于外资涌入太多，以致新加坡政府对外国买家投资住宅进行限购，尽管投资商业地产尚不受限制。 最后，在我看来，如能放宽标准，则会有更多选择。按上述6条标准，中国香港符合其中5条，而且这5条的表现相当出色，如人类发展指数（指人均寿命，居民教育程度非经济指标等），香港的指数为全球第4位，新加坡为第9位。这样一来，华人朋友就有新加坡和香港这两个语言与文化相近的投资目的地了。 阅读全文-《财新网》 想知道更多？IQI中文部落格，一键轻松得知房地产大小事！<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":102359,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","postBodyCss":"","postBodyMargin":[],"postBodyPadding":[],"postBodyBackground":{"backgroundType":"classic","gradient":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[261],"tags":[5398,6966,10814,257,9604,5178],"class_list":["post-102353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-261","tag-daniel-ho-zh","tag-iqi-cn","tag-iqi-news-cn","tag-press-cn","tag-juwai-iqi-cn","tag--zh"],"yoast_head":"\n
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